Home Ownership Was Warren Buffet’s Third Best Investment

While he has made thousands during his accomplished career, Warren Buffet, the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, says his rather modest home was the third-best investment he ever made.

The house, which Buffet purchased more than 50 years ago for $31,500, is now valued at more than $660,000, which he calls proof that homeownership makes financial sense. His only better investments were two wedding rings.

Buffet is also somewhat optimistic about the future of the housing and mortgage markets. He said he expects to see signs of recovery within a year, as long as mortgage lenders return to common-sense lending.

“A house can be a nightmare if the buyer’s eyes are bigger than his wallet and if a lender – often protected by a government guarantee – facilitates his fantasy,” Buffett said. Adding that not everyone can actually afford “the house of their dreams.”

The government has taken over a large share of the mortgage market over the past few years. The Federal Housing Administration alone accounted for more than 20 percent of mortgage loans in 2009.

We’re proud to be in the business of helping Americans realize the dream of homeownership. After 14 years of business, we are now one of the top lenders in the country. A lot of our growth has come in the past few years, some of the most troublesome ever in the mortgage industry. We attribute that to the common sense lending tactics Mr. Buffet remarked on.

BoA and Countrywide—Is an Era of Consolidation Among Us?

Who would want a mortgage company in the first place right? Well, plenty of banking groups, real estate firms, and global financial services companies are seriously looking to the opportunities relating to “mortgage market share.” If you control the mortgage, you have a good chance of controlling the equity line, checking & savings, insurance, auto lending, investments—you name it.

Even though it’s currently not a popular notion to get into the mortgage business, many respectable institutions are finding that it’s just too good of an opportunity to pass up. Remember one of Warren Buffet’s most famous one liners, “When people are getting greedy I get scared, and when people get scared I get greedy.” The recent move by Bank of America to acquire Countrywide Financial Corporation is just the beginning of a new era of mortgage banking and services consolidation. Even the CEO of Bank of America, Ken Lewis, said he actually “didn’t like the mortgage business”—but made an additional offer of $4 billion for Countrywide on top of the billions already infused.

Are they simply trying to avoid losing money already invested, as alluded to over on a Housing Wire post last week? Not likely folks. If Bank of America didn’t like the investment opportunity, they would likely join with all of the other massive mortgage servicers nationwide that threw in the towel, bowed their head in humility, and wrote off billions of dollars of loss due to bad mortgage investments—mainly poor capital markets and investment banking strategies (not necessarily all due to loans gone bad, which is an entirely different posting I plan on writing soon).

In reality, the merger between Countrywide and Bank of America is good news for the overall mortgage industry. It means that Bank of America has somewhat of an idea of how big the mortgage problem really is—i.e., there is a bottom. I would guess that the billions they have already thrown into Countrywide back when the liquidity markets first blew up, plus the new billions that they are offering for stock this month, suggests that they don’t really think that Countrywide’s problems are so bad that they will lose that investment.

Yes, I’ve said it a thousand times: there is no better lending technology on the planet than Countrywide’s platform (CLOUT & Platinum), amongst many other back-end banking fulfillment technologies that control the most efficient secondary markets’ system on the planet. Countrywide’s brand is imbedded into US consumers’ minds and rapidly spreading to be a global contributor to many economies moving towards a contemporary and western-style financial market. Is technology and brand enough for Bank of America to risk not only the billions already into the deal, but the possible unknowns still hanging out behind the scenes at Countrywide? I don’t think so. I think they have a pretty good idea of what the risks are and that owning this financial services giant, with an emphasis on mortgage lending, is simply something Bank of America could not pass up (and brilliant I might add) and could open the doors to new M&A deals to take place in the near future.

There are many positives in the mortgage world that will surely (eventually) reward the companies that have survived the storm. Just to name a few: Major increases in refinance activity (especially if the MBS bond ratings start to improve thanks to new stability and interest in mortgage lending from recent and interesting M&A activity); market stability due to a quieting of the media (the “mortgage crisis” is now only on the news channels every 4 to 5 hours vs. every 5 minutes—talk about slowing the flow of gasoline being poured on the fire); recent home price reductions in many MSAs have given new hope to those that are watching the “affordability meter” (couple that with new record-low interest rates and an entirely new group of home buyers instantly can come into the marketplace).

As we witness major financial institutions and mortgage lending firms consolidate into one another a few very important notions come into play and/or questioned. When there are fewer companies providing mortgage products, what will the consumers experience be? If fewer mortgage bank Investors are buying loans from mortgage brokers and lenders, what price will they be willing to pay for the actual servicing of the loan? Both questions come with simple answers—service levels fall and prices for mortgage servicing falls. The later doesn’t necessarily hurt the mortgage broker or the mortgage lender. The mortgage broker will simply raise fees or rates to compensate – not pretty, but it is a reality. The mortgage lenders, however, will have an entirely new opportunity to build mortgage servicing portfolios. Why wouldn’t they? There is very little risk after 2008 and mid-2009 that rates will fall any further, and if anything, we are in for a decade of higher interest rates, which secures a mortgage servicing portfolio from running off.

But even more important, it is cheaper for a mortgage company to keep or buy the servicing on loans originated versus selling them into the secondary markets – (extremely large servicing companies like Citi, Chase, GMAC, Bank of America, SunTrust, Countrywide, Wells Fargo, et. al.). As these giants consolidate into each other and suck mid-sized companies into their gravity field, the companies that escape this or choose not to be acquired will have a new and exciting opportunity to gain mortgage servicing portfolios that will rapidly gain value.

There is a new era on the horizon that will consist of not only consolidation within the mortgage banking world, but also mid-sized companies will all of a sudden become a national household brand and even new ventures will gain popularity and enjoy an opportunity to bring new service levels to a consumer that is starving for the attention they deserve in the mortgage lending process. It’s not all bad, and there are many new and exciting changes and opportunities just around the corner.

The Real Estate Market: Where’s the Bottom?

This seems to be the question I get from my friends-at parties, dinners and relatives. “Dave, when do you think the real estate market will hit bottom?”

That’s the big question these days, and I’m not sure that anyone has a definitive answer to it. Some of the greatest minds in this sector of the economy are arguing time frames and dollar values with conflicting outcomes, reflecting large deltas in thought and opinion.

People posing these questions to me fall into one of two camps: camp one, “local and personal,” and camp two, “national and economic.” I try to assess the questions and determine what camp the curiosity is originating from prior to offering insight. I do this because I feel strongly that these issues cannot be defined on a national basis and can only truly be looked at on a local basis when determining “what should I do to position myself best in today’s real estate market?” I agree there is a national impact due to so many MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas)reflecting slower real estate appreciation or even real estate depreciation; however, it would be a mistake for homeowners and potential homebuyers to take a “national statistic” into consideration when making a decision as to when to sell or buy a property. [Read more...]